Volume 66, No. 1 (March 2022)

A Foreshadowing of Modern Intelligence Analysis in 10th Century Byzantium

By Andrew Skitt Gilmour

The history of all-source national intelligence analysis in the United States usually begins with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 to illustrate the strategic consequences of failing to systematically collect, centralize, and assess intelligence information. But collection of strategically relevant information was commonplace in ancient times. This essay addresses the principles on such matters formulated by Constantine VII in the 10th century, principles that resemble those of modern intelligence analysis.