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Studies in Intelligence 68, No. 1 (Extracts, March 2024)

Future of Intelligence: “The Incalculable Element”: The Promise and Peril of Artificial Intelligence

by Zachery Tyson Brown


But the incalculable element in the future exercises the widest influence, and is the most treacherous.

- Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War

Recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) have prompted tremendous excitement and significant trepidation while renewing a vigorous public debate about just what the growing capabilities of these systems portend for the future of work and society. There is another, parallel conversation going on, though, and this one is being held largely behind closed doors. For the Intelligence Community, questions of how swiftly and how thoroughly GenAI should be integrated into its distributed collection and analysis architecture are being hotly debated just as they are in other sectors, only with far more at stake.

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